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Analysis: Turkey and the EU drift apart

Staff and agencies
05 November, 2006


By BENJAMIN HARVEY, Associated Press Writer 17 minutes ago

ISTANBUL, Turkey - The cautious courtship between Turkey and the European Union looks like it might be headed for a messy and acrimonious breakup.

The mood is likely to worsen after Wednesday when the EU releases a progress report on Turkey‘s bid which says Ankara is dragging its feet on reform and failing to meet minimum human rights standards, according to a draft copy viewed by The Associated Press.

Many analysts say that is why negotiations are likely to continue for the foreseeable future, with neither side committing to a clean split that would send the message to Muslims everywhere that the West is not prepared to deal with them on equal footing.

For the moment, enthusiasm toward Turkey‘s bid has cooled dramatically on both sides, and Turkish leaders‘ passionate claims it could bridge the gap between Europe and the Muslim world are starting to ring hollow.

Europeans, meanwhile, have a litany of complaints about Turkey, including its poor record on human rights, intolerance to free speech and hardline attitudes toward adultery and homosexuality.

Many Turks fault the country‘s old rivals Greece and Cyprus for the growing acrimony, claiming they are lobbying the EU to take a hard line over Turkey‘s refusal to open its ports to planes and ships from the Greek-speaking part of Cyprus. Turkey does not recognize the Cypriot government and props up the internationally unrecognized administration in the north of the island.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in remarks released Sunday that the standoff over Cyprus was "very serious." Asked if the talks would be frozen, she said: "The EU cannot simply carry on. Turkey must understand that there will be no simple ‘carry on‘ if there is no movement" on Cyprus.

The Islamic countries of the Middle East, Central Asia and North Africa, with which Turkey‘s Islamic-rooted government has been forging increasingly close ties, could be natural surrogates.

But many Turks feel that a complete breakup with the EU is out of the question.

"Some in the European Union public love this humiliation — particularly in France," he said, alluding to a proposed French law that would make it a crime to deny the Turkish genocide of Armenians.

Meanwhile, some leading politicians on both sides are trying to make the relationship so miserable that Turkey will just walk away on its own, said Ilter Turan, a political analyst at Istanbul Bilgi University.

Turan said, however, the government would be excoriated by the Turkish public if it walked away from the EU, despite the current anti-EU mood in the country.

The key question appears to be how to persuade Turkey to reform without damaging national pride.

"There is one thing where the Turkish public seems to be rather adamant," Turan said. "If there is to be a union, it is to be on equal grounds."

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Associated Press Writer Stephen Graham contributed to this report from Berlin.